You’ll be able to gamble on horses or on the flip of a card – however Daniel Gould made a residing betting on the result of the annual Eurovision Track Contest. Daniel made a revenue as a result of he studied the voting historical past of the competitors, in addition to the cultural and geo-political components that predict which songs will triumph and which is able to rating “nil level”.
In 2018, Daniel was so positive of his system of decreasing the chance that he took out a mortgage on his house and guess it on Israel’s music to win… solely to see the entry from Cyrus out of the blue rocketing up the chief board. Was Daniel about to lose every little thing?
Philip Tetlock’s basic guide on forecasting is Skilled Political Judgment.