One image (element) to be proven:
Determine 1: Reported year-on-year Industrial manufacturing (black), out-of-sample ex submit simulation for time period unfold/brief price (blue), specification augmented with Chicago Fed NFCI and overseas time period unfold (pink), and specification but including debt-service ratio (solely by way of finish 2022) (inexperienced).
Determine 1 differs barely from data reported within the paper, as I exchange the Aroggoni, Bobasu, Venditti equal-weighted FCI with the Chicago Fed NFCI which is obtainable to final month (the Arrigoni et al. collection solely out there to 2020M05).
Recession prediction (the place recession outlined by NBER) right here (in-sample match).
Slides to observe (and paper — submit feedback — to observe but later).