2:00PM Water Cooler 11/16/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Music of the Day

Aztec Thrush, Miahuatlán, Oaxaca, Mexico. “Audio recording lifer 🙁 Didn’t discover this within the area, I used to be distracted with recording, after which with flyover Hooded Grosbeak flock.” The standard ranking of this recording is low, presumably due to the street (?) noise within the background, however I don’t thoughts appears like that; I just like the sense of an actual setting.

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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The Constitutional Order

“The place efforts to disqualify Trump from 2024 poll stand” [Axios]. Fairly a round-up:

By the numbers: Six circumstances associated to the clause have already been dismissed, together with in Minnesota, New Hampshire, two in Michigan and one other two in Florida, per authorized evaluation by nonprofit publication Lawfare.

• Six circumstances have been voluntarily withdrawn in Idaho, Utah, Oklahoma, Maine, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
• At the least 19 extra stay pending, together with two in New York, in Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska, Montana, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Wisconsin, Vermont, Massachusetts, Virginia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Delaware, Connecticut and New Jersey.

I’m assuming most of those are frivolous fits introduced by people…

Biden Administration

Al Shifa hospital doesn’t appear to have been a propaganda win:

Mossad and CIA intelligence failed once more

Israel admits there are not any tunnels getting used beneath Al Shifa hospital.

They’re all concreted up.

Weeks have handed and the Israelis have but to discover a single tunnel or hostage. pic.twitter.com/oA2j9TBoIb

— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) November 16, 2023

And possibly was by no means going to be:

Israel claims Al Shifa hospital hides a command middle for Hamas.
Norwegian physician Mads Gilbert, who has labored at Al-Shifa, Gaza for 16 years says there may be “no proof in any respect” for that: “If it was a navy command middle, I might not work there.” pic.twitter.com/KC8Gkuki6R

— Faheem (@stoppression) November 11, 2023

I stay baffled on the idea that capturing a “command middle” may have strategic significance. Outdated-timers will keep in mind “captured enemy paperwork” from Vietnam. We captured a number of “command facilities” dropping that conflict, too!

Fairly a haul:

Shifa hospital#IsraelFightsTerror pic.twitter.com/Cz7IQlPfeR

— Mossad Commentary (@MOSSADil) November 16, 2023

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

* * *

“Trump’s new Latino technique casts him as sufferer of socialists” [Axios]. “Former President Trump’s staff is making an attempt to construct on the GOP’s latest beneficial properties amongst Latinos with a technique in Florida that’s aimed toward voters of Cuban, Venezuelan and Colombian descent — and that casts Trump as a sufferer of overzealous socialists. Trump’s efforts to liken his authorized woes and his clashes with Democrats to the difficulties many Latin People have confronted beneath socialist and authoritarian rule characterize a flip in his push to attraction to the fastest-growing section of the U.S. voters. This technique was an enormous cause why Trump selected Hialeah, Fla., as the positioning of his counter-programming rally throughout final week’s Republican presidential debate. Hialeah is greater than 95% Hispanic, and the overwhelming majority of these residents are Cuban People, a conservative voters that identifies extra with Republicans than many different Latino teams. On the rally, Trump portrayed his ‘persecution’ on felony costs — and what he referred to as his resistance to communism — as much like what many Cuban People and their households skilled throughout the communist regime of Fidel Castro… It’s unclear whether or not Trump’s “sufferer” technique that performs properly in Florida will resonate with Mexican People and different Latinos whose households’ backgrounds don’t contain fleeing authoritarian leaders.”

“Trump’s violent speak reveals indicators of taking on Congress” [The Hill]. “[Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.)] noticed that Trump acknowledged earlier than most different politicians the anger brewing in American society and seized on it for political acquire, however he warned it’s a harmful path for the nation’s leaders. ‘I don’t know if he modified [norms] or just responded to what he noticed from different individuals. I feel he sensed that the American individuals have been permitting this to go on, and he’s taken benefit of it, however it’s not the route that I feel our nation ought to go,’ he stated. ‘I actually do consider that the Founding Fathers needed us to get collectively right here in Washington, work out our variations, and they don’t anticipate us to be caning each other,’ he added.” • So I’m not the one one with the caning of Sumner in thoughts…

* * *

“DeSantis targets China, however takes money from Chinese language-backed firm” [Orlando Sentinel]. “Gov. Ron DeSantis has gone on the offensive in opposition to Chinese language affect in latest months, signing a invoice proscribing what land Chinese language firms and residents should purchase in Florida and suspending state scholarships to 4 Florida colleges over alleged hyperlinks to China. However this August he took a examine for greater than $11,000 from the CEO of a Tampa refrigerant firm with direct backing from China. It was simply the most recent in years of economic assist that the corporate, iGas USA, has given DeSantis. Final 12 months DeSantis held a rally on the Chinese language-backed refrigerant firm’s Tampa complicated. The rally and contributions are a part of a latest wave of political giving by iGas and entities related to its CEO, Xianbin ‘Ben’ Meng. All informed, the businesses and staff have made greater than $1.1 million in federal and state political contributions previously 5 years, with 98% of the cash going to Republican candidates and committees. The most important share of that cash, $340,000, went to DeSantis and committees affiliated with him.” • Oh.

* * *

“Biden Is Tearing His Personal Coalition Aside” [The Nation]. “Joe Biden hasn’t gotten America right into a land conflict in Asia but, however in each different method he’s repeating LBJ’s mistake of considering weapons and butter go collectively. Via his infrastructure invoice and the Inflation Discount Act, Biden has admirably returned big-ticket social spending to the White Home agenda. However he has been equally involved to reassert American hegemony, financing the conflict in Ukraine, promising more cash to Israel because it carries out its bombing of Gaza, and pivoting towards a great-power competitors with China that might simply grow to be a brand new chilly conflict. Just like the Chilly Conflict liberals, Biden has embraced a navy Keynesianism that sees weapons and butter as mutually self-supporting. In late October, Politico reported, ‘The White Home has been quietly urging lawmakers in each events to promote the conflict efforts overseas as a possible financial growth at dwelling. Aides have been distributing speaking factors to Democrats and Republicans who’ve been supportive of continued efforts to fund Ukraine’s resistance to make the case that doing so is sweet for American jobs.’ Nationwide safety adviser Jake Sullivan has been a serious advocate of this new navy Keynesianism.” However: “like LBJ earlier than him, Biden will discover {that a} guns-and-butter consensus is brittle and satisfies nobody. Countless conflict isn’t standard. Voters are already souring on the thought of sending extra help to Ukraine, and polls present majority assist for a cease-fire in Gaza…. By making an attempt to hammer out a guns-and-butter consensus that only a few exterior the elite assist, Biden is tearing aside each his personal coalition and American society.”

“Has Biden’s electoral coalition fractured?” [The Hill]. “In keeping with the ballot, 22 p.c of Black voters in these battleground states say they’d vote for Donald Trump over Joe Biden in subsequent 12 months’s presidential election…. No Democratic presidential candidate for the reason that civil rights period has earned lower than 80 p.c of the Black vote…. Due to his assist for Israel, President Biden may lose Muslim votes, particularly in Michigan, one of many key battleground states. He may lose progressive voters basically and younger voters specifically — two extra key parts within the Democratic coalition. He may even lose assist of one other bloc that traditionally has voted (overwhelming) for Democratic presidents — Jewish voters, who consider that there are components within the Democratic Get together which might be anti-Israel, anti-Jewish and even pro-Hamas…. Lastly, there’s one other quantity within the ballot that tells us rather a lot about what People are considering. 56 p.c of registered voters in these six battleground states have both a considerably or very unfavorable view of Joe Biden. As for Donald Trump: He is available in with a 57 p.c unfavorable quantity. So if it’s a Trump vs. Biden rematch, the one factor we all know with some certainty is that voters want they’d each simply go away.”

* * *

“Joe Manchin says he ‘completely’ would take into account working for president in 2024: Senator received’t rule out potential third-party bid that might dent Biden’s probabilities” [Daily Mail]. “Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin stated Wednesday he would ‘completely’ take into account a presidential run, giving himself till round Tremendous Tuesday to determine whether or not to launch a third-party bid for the White Home…. As for Biden, he informed [NBC’s Meet the Press host Kristen Welker], ‘I’m afraid that Joe Biden’s been pushed too far to the left.’ ‘Can he come again? We’ll see,’ the senator added. ‘However the backside line is that’s not the Joe Biden that we thought was being elected, to go that far left.’”

“‘No Labels’ chief says group launching 2024 candidate committee: Manchin deserves ‘severe consideration’” [FOX]. “Former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman — who served as each a Democrat and Unbiased — stated Wednesday if 2024 turns into a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, he may see Manchin as a possible candidate for the group to unite round. Nevertheless, he underlined there is no such thing as a assure ‘No Labels’ will certainly area a candidate. ‘Joe Manchin is a good friend of mine. He’s a terrific centrist. He actually has walked the stroll and labored on bipartisan problem-solving in Congress,’ stated Lieberman, who was additionally the 2000 presidential running-mate for Al Gore.” • What horrible political judgment Gore had, to make certain. Placing Lieberman on the nationwide stage.

* * *

Centrism:

RFK Jr says the quiet half out loud:

Israel is a stronghold for us…It is like having an plane provider within the Center East…If Israel disappears, Russia, China and the BRICS+ international locations will management 90% of the world’s oil, and this will probably be a catastrophe.pic.twitter.com/OWmu2peyFF

— Danny Haiphong (@SpiritofHo) November 8, 2023

Merch:

Break the duopoly in fashion! Get your official Cornel West 2024 marketing campaign merch at https://t.co/lx0HUKP1I9#CornelWest2024 pic.twitter.com/T7q5AqO6fM

— Cornel West (@CornelWest) November 15, 2023

I just like the look!

PMC gatekeeping, as common:

.@abbydphillip spoke to @AndrewYang on CNN tonight about Biden’s Democratic challengers Dean Phillips and …Manchin (huh?) …and Newsom (huh?)

There IS one other precise Democratic candidate right here – polling larger than Phillips, at 16% amongst Democratic leaning voters on the…

— Marianne Williamson (@marwilliamson) November 11, 2023

* * *

“Governor JB Pritzker outlines plans for migrant consumption middle, funds for shelter” [ABC7]. “Governor JB Pritzker laying out new emergency steps as 1000’s of migrants await shelter in Chicago…. The governor asserting the coverage and the funding Thursday, saying they needed to step in an present this help with temperatures anticipated to plummet subsequent week. ‘To get individuals off of the streets as we head into winter, the state of Illinois will make investments an extra $160 million by way of the Division of Human Providers, particularly to deal with these bottlenecks,’ Governor Pritzker stated. A part of the cash, $30 million will probably be to arrange an consumption middle for when the migrants first arrive in Chicago to both assist them discover a place to remain, or get them to their subsequent vacation spot in one other metropolis.” And: “RELATED: Chicago migrants could have 60-day restrict to shelter stays, Mayor Johnson broadcasts.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly individuals are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, the truth is, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Get together reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Get together (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Be aware, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“The Squad Is About to Battle for Its Political Life” [Slate]. “One of many greatest, bitterest, and costliest political battles of the 2024 election cycle has emerged: The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, one of the highly effective, best-funded affect operations in Washington, is planning to go all out to knock the famed “Squad”—the small group of extremely seen and standard progressive legislators of coloration, most of them girls—out of workplace…. Critically, all of them reject big-money backing, surviving on simply grassroots assist and small-dollar fundraising… Within the 2022 midterms, the Israel foyer grew to become the biggest single-issue exterior spender in Democratic primaries, pouring in almost $30 million by way of the tremendous PAC the United Democracy Venture, and thousands and thousands extra by way of the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC. It was an astronomical amount of cash, largely directed at knocking progressives out of the primaries, largely in open and redrawn seats. Regardless of there being fewer vacancies in 2024, that cash determine is predicted to no less than triple.” It might be useful to have an evidence of why AIPAC’s marketing campaign isn’t election interference by a overseas energy. Extra: “Up to now, [lol]. Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries—who took more cash from the Israel foyer in 2022 than from another group and is featured prominently on the lobbying group’s web site (alongside Home Republican management)—hasn’t tried to dissuade the primarying of those progressive Democratic incumbents. He may simply publicly disavow such spending and make it clear to candidates that accepting such assist is in opposition to caucus coverage; in 2019, Home Democrats made it an official coverage to blacklist any Democratic guide or political group who aided a progressive challenger in opposition to a sitting Democratic incumbent forward of the 2020 elections. However to date Jeffries has solely managed to say: ‘. I feel Home Democrats are going to proceed to assist one another.’” • Odd. Jeffries appears to assume the Democrat Get together is a few form of cash laundering operation.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“The panel charged with recommending modifications to Massachusetts’s seal and motto simply disbanded. It didn’t provide particular substitutes for both.” [Boston Globe]. • Amusing portrait of a totally dysfunctional committee.

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Covid is Airborne

Dentists v. medical doctors:

the 4 well being care places of work I visited lately for a medical subject did the minimal required, no masks necessities or reminders to do something for covid. Air flow/filtration was no matter was a part of the constructing or medical gear.

— Dr James Morris (@James___Morris) November 15, 2023

I feel the distinction is that dentistry — cleansing, drilling, extracting — as an aerosol-generating process, and so dentists are aerosol-conscious. Against this, medical doctors are used to considering of aerosols as being generated in working theatres, and as merely produced by respiratory, speaking, shouting, and many others. There’s little skilled excuse for this, in fact, however “one funeral at a time.”

“What are the issues with hermetic properties?” [National Post]. “Nevertheless, there are air-purification techniques that neutralize the air utilizing . These units present air purification and odour elimination across the clock — maintaining your indoor air clear and recent.” • No no no no no:

3/ A few of these by-products are identified to be dangerous. Some are suspected to be dangerous based mostly on their chemical construction and similarities to chemical substances we all know might be dangerous, and we don’t have good tox knowledge for almost all (these might or is probably not significantly dangerous).

— Richard Corsi, PhD, PE (Texas) (@CorsIAQ) November 16, 2023

Maskstravaganza

Since masks appear like medical home equipment, it’s no shock individuals affiliate them with sickness, not security, not to mention collective security:

MaskLab simply retains delivering with these beautiful designs.

In the meantime, 3M is simply completely giving up on having any position in fascinated by the way forward for masks aesthetics, sigh.

P.S. If anybody wants a MaskLab code for 15% off, https://t.co/xHKYni2yIXhttps://t.co/fiBPn87mj1 pic.twitter.com/x0nz4AVokd

— Dr Rebecca Richardson (@mavisclare) November 15, 2023

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with persona modifications therefrom.

* * *

Lambert right here: A number of indicators up, beginning with wastewater. (The one I fear about probably the most is ER visits, since I feel that knowledge is tough to sport, and who desires to go to the ER, anyhow?) I feel it’s time to ship the family members these clippings you saved on mind harm (additionally, in fact, the 2022 clippings: right here, right here. And the 2020 one).

Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, November 13:

Lambert right here: Instances up, simply in time for Thanksgiving (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was making an attempt to hide after they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).

Regional knowledge:

All over the place!

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, November 11:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a powerful second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, October 28:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services minimize by directors of sick intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will probably be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 11:

Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater knowledge. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, no less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, regardless that CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of November 15:

Decline flattens. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, no less than. November 4:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, November 13:

-1.4%. However bouncing round. (It might be fascinating to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and acquired examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, November 11:

Lambert right here: Enhance (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, October 29:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, nonetheless from October 23:

Sudden massive BA.2.86 look. This variant chart has not been up to date, which makes me marvel if CDC is gaming the info, and BA.2.86 is worse than we expect.

Deaths

Whole: 1,182,163 – 1,181,963 = 200 (200 * 365 = 73,000 deaths per 12 months, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may need to determine that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission completed” for this specific tranche of loss of life and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, November 16:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of People submitting for unemployment advantages rose by 13,000 to 231,000 on the week ending November eleventh, the very best in almost three months, and properly above market expectations of 220,000. Within the meantime, persevering with claims rose by 18,000 to 1,865,000 within the earlier week, the very best in almost two years and sharply above market forecasts of 1,847,000, suggesting that jobseekers are having a tougher time find appropriate employment.”

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing” [Trading Economics]. “US industrial manufacturing declined by 0.7% year-on-year in October 2023, following a revised 0.2% contraction within the earlier month.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index within the US elevated 3.1 factors however remained adverse at -5.9 in November 2023, higher than market forecasts of -9. That is the index’s sixteenth adverse studying previously 18 months.”

Manufacturing: “United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Kansas Metropolis Fed’s Manufacturing Manufacturing index was at -3 in November of 2023, enhancing from -8 within the earlier month however sustaining the adverse territory for the third consecutive interval. Each sturdy items and nondurable items manufacturing indices ticked up barely within the interval, though the previous remained beneath zero.”

Tech: “Mother and pop retailers are slicing software program spending, creating jitters on Wall Road” [CNBC]. “Analysts are seeing a pullback in software program spending by eating places, retailers, and different native and regional companies, that are responding to weaker client developments…. Over the previous twenty years, small companies have accounted for 40% of U.S. gross home product, in accordance with the Chamber of Commerce. Additionally they make use of 46% of the American workforce…. Buyers throughout the sector try to determine if SMB spending has bottomed or if companies are nonetheless on the lookout for alternatives to slim down their software program portfolio ought to the financial image dampen additional.”

Tech: “Dangerous Bots Account for 73% of Web Site visitors: Evaluation” [Security Week]. “The highest 5 classes of Dangerous Bot assaults are faux account creation, account takeovers, scraping, account administration, and in-product abuse. These haven’t modified from Q2, aside from in-product abuse changing card testing. The most important will increase in assaults from Q2 to Q3 are SMS toll fraud (up 2,141%), account administration (up 160%), and faux account creation (up 23%). The highest 5 focused industries are expertise (Dangerous Bots comprise 76% of its web site visitors); gaming (29% of site visitors); social media (46%), e-commerce (65%), and monetary providers (45%). If a bot fails in its goal, there’s a rising tendency for the criminals to modify to human operated fraud farms. Arkose estimates there have been greater than 3 billion fraud farm assaults in H1 2023…. .” Oh. Extra: “Crime-as-a-service permits wannabe criminals who might have the intent however not the abilities to have interaction in cybercrime. “The large rise of CaaS has fully modified the economics for adversaries” continued Gosschalk. ‘It’s less expensive to assault firms and the assaults are simply higher as a result of it’s a dev store that’s doing the assaults as a substitute of simply particular person cybercriminals.’ The persevering with enhance within the quantity of Dangerous Bots suggests they continue to be worthwhile for the criminals. The arrival of gen-AI will enhance the efficiency of Dangerous Bots, whereas the expansion of CaaS will enhance the variety of Dangerous Bot operators; so, it’ll worsen. The one resolution is Dangerous Bot detection and mitigation to restrict the entry of the bots to their human or system targets.” • Thanks, Silicon Valley. “Crime as a Service” looks like a William Gibson theme, although amazingly he didn’t invent the phrase. Arduous to consider the mind geniuses who invented AI didn’t see this coming…. However possibly not!

Tech: “Europe’s hidden safety disaster” [Irish Council for Civil Liberties]. “Our investigation highlights a widespread commerce in knowledge about delicate European personnel and leaders that exposes them to blackmail, hacking and compromise, and undermines the safety of their organisations and establishments. These knowledge movement from Actual-Time Bidding (RTB), an promoting expertise that’s lively on virtually all web sites and apps. RTB entails the broadcasting of delicate knowledge about individuals utilizing these web sites and apps to giant numbers of different entities, with out safety measures to guard the info. This happens billions of occasions a day. Our examination of tens of 1000’s of pages of RTB knowledge reveals that EU navy personnel and political choice makers are focused utilizing RTB. This report additionally reveals that Google and different RTB companies ship RTB knowledge about individuals within the U.S. to Russia and China, the place nationwide legal guidelines allow safety companies to entry the info. RTB knowledge are additionally broadcast extensively throughout the EU in a free-for-all, which implies that overseas and non-state actors can not directly acquire them, too. RTB knowledge typically embody location knowledge or time-stamps or different identifiers that make it comparatively simple for dangerous actors to hyperlink them to particular people. International states and non-state actors can use RTB to spy heading in the right direction people’ monetary issues, psychological state, and compromising intimate secrets and techniques. Even when goal people use safe units, knowledge about them will nonetheless movement by way of RTB from private units, their mates, household, and compromising private contacts.” • Thanks, Silicon Valley.

Tech: Love the “make actual” button:

For some definition of “actual”…..

Right now’s Worry & Greed Index: 55 Impartial (earlier shut: 53 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 38 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 16 at 12:28:03 PM ET. Based mostly on what? Arms dealing?

The Gallery

‘Tis the season:

I keep in mind a portray of snow by Pisarro on the Boston MFA that captured the glittery whiteness of recent snow on crisp, sunny day. Whiteness, no less than from a couple of ft away; shut up, the snow was tiny dots of various brilliant colours: crimson, blue, yellow…

Class Warfare

“UAW-Common Motors contract has sufficient votes for ratification” [Politico]. “United Auto Employees members at Common Motors had sufficient votes Thursday to ratify their contract with the corporate, in accordance with a tracker maintained by the union, checking the primary of three packing containers wanted to formally finish the strike in opposition to the Detroit automakers…. Votes at Ford and Stellantis have been nonetheless ongoing as ofThursday morning.

“Starbucks staff strike at 200 union shops on Crimson Cup Day” [Axios]. • Good. Additionally good:

Information of the Wired

“The Fact is At all times Fabricated from Particulars” [Raptitude]. “When you have been instructed to attract a leaf, you may draw a inexperienced, vaguely eye-shaped factor with a stem. However once you examine an actual leaf, say an elm leaf, it’s acquired way more happening than that drawing. It has rounded serrations alongside its edges, and the tip of every serration is the tip of a raised vein, which runs from the stem within the center. Tiny ripples span the channels between the veins, and small capillaries divide every section into little “counties” with irregular borders. I may go on for pages….. The Info Age is clearly pushing us in direction of low-res conclusions on questions that warrant deep, lengthy, high-res consideration. Think about our poor hominid brains, making an attempt to type a coherent worldview out of monetized feeds manufactured from low-resolution takes on probably the most complicated subjects possible — financial techniques, local weather, illness, race, intercourse and gender. Unsurprisingly, amidst the unbelievable quantity of data coming at us, there’s been a surge in low-res, ideologically-driven views: the world is like this, these individuals are like that, X is sweet, Y is dangerous, A causes B. Not sophisticated, bro…. …. I can’t assist however assume we’d profit from a acutely aware intention to see issues when it comes to their particulars once more, dialing up the default decision at which we have interaction with each our experiences and our concepts. The world exists in infinite decision, and that’s what we’re constructed for. The reality is manufactured from particulars, and so they go all the best way down. Any concepts about it simply relaxation on the highest.” • Clearly a congenial set of concepts for me. Properly value a learn!

Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From griffen:

griffen writes: “I dont have a bucket checklist however in late September visited parks in SD, and right here at Devils Tower in Wyoming. Fairly unbelievable go to, hikes.”

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