GDP This fall Nowcasts of November seventeenth

Plenty of settlement round 2% SAAR, with NY Fed at 2.45%. Right here’s a graphic depiction of the implications for the extent of GDP.

Determine 1: Reported GDP from advance This fall launch (daring black), GDPNow (blue sq.), NY Fed nowcast (purple *), St. Louis Fed information index (gentle inexperienced open triangle), Goldman Sachs monitoring (pink open circle), November Survey of Skilled Forecasters median (gentle blue line). Supply: BEA, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, Goldman Sachs, Philadelphia Fed; nowcasts are of November seventeenth.

WEI for information by means of 11/11 is 2.35%, whereas the Baumeister Leiva-Leon Sims Weekly Financial Situations Indicator is -0.4% (so 1.96% if pattern is 2%).