Determine 1: GDP (daring black), Might Survey of Skilled Forecasters median (blue), February SPF median (tan), Might 17 GDPNow (sky blue), and potential GDP (grey). Supply: BEA 2023Q1 advance, CBO (February 2023), Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and writer’s calculations.
The median response signifies no decline in development till 2023Q4. However, development is meager — lower than 1% in Q2 (q/q SAAR), about half a ppt in Q3, and primarily no development in This autumn. The decline is thus moved from Q3 to This autumn. (For those who have a look at the November survey, median development was primarily zero in Q1.)
This newest outlook contrasts with Torsten Slok’s recounting of consensus, which he describes as a “laborious touchdown”.
Supply: T. Slok, Might 16, 2023. (not on-line).
This implies to me that completely different teams of economists are conveying completely different views of the outlook (the timing would possibly matter too — most likely a few weeks distinction right here).
By the best way, I’ve stayed away from the time period “recession” as a result of destructive GDP development isn’t essentially equal to a recession.