With the commercial manufacturing launch exhibiting an upside shock (0.5% m/m vs -0.1 consensus) on account of an outsized manufacturing improve (1% vs. 0.1% consensus), that is the image of the collection the NBER Enterprise Cycle Courting Committee (BCDC), plus month-to-month GDP from S&P International Market Intelligence (SPGMI) previously Macroeconomic Advisers.
Determine 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (darkish blue), Bloomberg consensus of 5/16 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (crimson), private revenue excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Bloomberg consensus stage calculated by including forecasted change to earlier unrevised stage of employment out there at time of forecast. Supply: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q1 advance launch through FRED, S&P International/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (5/1/2023 launch), and writer’s calculations.
It’s attention-grabbing to think about the evolution of two different indicators of the broad state of the financial system: GDP+ and the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index for the US.
Determine 2: GDP+, scaled to 2019Q4, in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR (blue bars, left log scale), and coincident index (blue, proper log scale). Lilac shading denotes a putative 2022H1 recession. Supply: Philadelphia Fed and Philadelphia Fed.
Curiously, GDP+ and the coincident index (the latter based mostly totally on labor market indicators) didn’t point out a recession in 2022H1.