Determine 1: 10 year-3 month Treasury unfold (blue), and 10 yr – 2 yr unfold (tan), each in %. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. 3 month Treasury is secondary market price. June remark is for information by 6/16. Supply: Treasury through FRED, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
Estimated chances for 10yr-3mo proven on this put up (by Could).
Inversions this steep haven’t occurred for many years. Then again, no matter hyperlink there may be between the depth of inversions and the severity of the recession shouldn’t be sturdy.